Clutch Drivers
Hormann's numbers on 3rd down were most impressive (CREDIT: Ivyleaguesports.com)
Sports stats can sometimes be misleading. But I've always found quarterback passing numbers to be pretty straightforward. What you see is what you get. The only trick is to make sure you've broken them down enough to make sure you're measuring each individual QB correctly.
One of my favorite stats, that you basically have to dig for yourself, is a quarterback's passing numbers on 3rd down. It's basically like looking at what a batter does with runners in scoring position and two outs.
On 3rd down, if you're a QB with a better than 50% completion percentage and getting around 35% of those passes for first downs, you're in good shape.
TD passes on 3rd down plays are exremely valuable, while interceptions are almost doubly painful.
And then there's my favorite passing statistic: Yards Per Attempt. Just as it is the case in overall passing, a average of 7 yards or better on 3rd down is the gold standard.
Here's how the five returning QB's projected to return as starters made out on 3rd down passes in 2006
1. Craig Hormann COLUMBIA
Attempts: 105
Completions: 63
Completion %: .600
Yards: 717
YPA: 6.8
1st Downs: 42
% first downs: .400
TD: 2
INT: 1
JAKE'S 3RD down QB RATING*: +2.3
2. Liam O'Hagan HARVARD
Attempts: 30
Completions: 14
Comp. %: .466
Yards: 194
YPA: 6.46
1st Downs: 10
% first downs: .333
TD: 2
INT: 1
JAKE'S 3RD down QB RATING: +.5
3. Nathan Ford CORNELL
Attempts: 66
Completions: 32
Completion %: .484
Yards: 390
YPA: 5.9
1st Downs: 20
% first downs: .303
TD: 4
INT: 3
JAKE'S 3RD down QB RATING: +.27
4. Matt Polhemus YALE
Attempts: 68
Completions: 33
Completion %: .485
Yards: 372
YPA: 5.4
1st Downs: 27
% first downs: .397
TD: 1
INT: 2
JAKE'S 3RD down QB RATING: -3.28
5. Robert Irvin PENN
Attempts: 90
Completions: 44
Completion %: .488
Yards: 538
YPA: 5.9
1st Downs: 28
% first downs: .311
TD: 1
INT: 5
JAKE'S 3RD down QB RATING: -9.61
(*=devised by adding or subtracting a QB's 3rd down passing stats above or below 50% completion pct., 7 yards per attempt, 35% first downs passing, and two points awarded for each TD and two points deducted for each INT)
Now I came to these numbers by poring over the play-by-play accounts of each team's games, so this wasn't totally quick and easy work. But it was totally worth it as the numbers really jumped out at me.
The biggest news for Columbia fans is that Hormann definitely deserved his selection as 2nd team All-Ivy quarterback last season. He was super-impressive on 3rd downs with a 60% completion rate, and that 40% first down completion percentage. None of the other returning QB's was even close to as effective as Hormann was in those clutch situations.
And while Hormann was incredible overall in 2006 with just one INT for every 54 attempts, he was even better on 3rd down with just one pick-off in 105 passes. Unheard of! It's another reason why the Lions need him back and healthy when the season starts. And just imagine what Hormann might do with a stronger running game behind him.
On the other hand, Penn's Robert Irvin's numbers were worse than I expected they would be. If he had been even mediocre on 3rd down, instead of a serious threat to get picked off or throw the ball well short of the marker, maybe Quaker fans wouldn't have had their various kickers to, ahem, kick around all offseason. While Hormann had just the one pick in 105 attempts, Irvin threw one interception for every 18 3rd down throws. Irvin was just a sophomore in '06, but he'll need to mature very quickly if he doesn't want to get yanked for good in '07.
The other returning starters, Ford, O'Hagan, and Polhemus, are a mixed bag. With only 30 attempts, O'Hagan really didn't provide enough of a sample last season to judge his abilities. Ford and Polhemus were mostly mediocre with the occasional flash of brilliance or just plain competance.
But I do expect Ivy offenses to improve overall this season, and that means we should see some better numbers on 3rd down from the returning and new QB's in the league.
posted by Jake @ 11:35:00 PM
8 comments
8 Comments:
As you suggest by referring to the running game, the more meaningful stat is the QB's share -- through passing --- of a team's 1st down pick ups on 3rd down. In other words,Hormann plus [whom]? is worth more than Polhemous plus McLeod? Also meaningful is a team's reliance upon successful 3rd downs to keep drives alive. That having been said, Hormann's second half performance last year adds "measurably" to the build-up for this year.
I would add that Matt Polhemus often ran for first downs with his feet.
Yale, as many fans knows, also runs a high percentage of Mcleod draws on third down, in addition to regular runs with McLeod and fullback dives in very short situations.
Great job pulling the stats and the differences are impressive...but I agree they need to be looked at in terms of the total number of third down plays per team and team third down conversion rate.
I thought that Ford was the worst Ivy QB that I saw last season. Yet your rating has him at around the same level as Craig. As for Polhemus, I don't see the point about Polhemus plus McLeod being more effective overall that Craig plus Davis. You are evaluating QBs as passers, not QBs for their ability to hand off the ball to a RB. And in any event, I find it hard to say anything good about McLeod after his knucklehead somersault into the end zone and hope we stuff him but good this year.
If Craig's back leading the attack, I'll bet he's stronger on first and second down as well. With a better running attack this year, defense will have to respect the run every play and that'll help Craig's success on other downs. More targets and a healthy Hormann will make for a strong offense attack! Hopefully, Olawale's spring experience will help him step up if Craig's not ready to go! We'll know soon!
Oh, Craig will be back!!! Looking forward to the season.
Go Lions
A couple of clarifying points:
Ford is not rated near Hormann, he comes in 3rd out of 5th and there's a huge difference between Hormann at #1 and everyone else.
I agree that there are QB's who can get first downs with their feet, but yes, I'm focusing on passing and passing ability, and as a pure passer, Hormann was surprisingly good. Sure, I'd love to see Columbia make a ton of 3rd and 1's, 2's, amd 3's with a solid running game... but passing works too.
Finally, I don't think 105 third down passing attempts is too out of whack. If you have a good QB, you want him throwing the ball on 3rd down, and every team is going to have about 10 third downs a game, give or take.
I think it's great that we're going into the season with three quarterbacks of the caliber of Craig Hormann, M.A. Olawale and Shane Kelly and two promising freshmen in Paul Havas and Corey Claire. Forget everything else, in football quarterback is the key position. Go Lions!
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