Ivy League Football Predictions 2009

It's a long holiday weekend, and you need something longer from me to read. I also promised my league prediction for 2009 sometime this week.

Of course, my in-depth look ahead for the season for Columbia will come later, but for now here's the overview.

I just wish this job were easier.

For a league steeped in tradition, and a recent spate of concentrated power in just a few teams, you'd think predicting the Ivy standings wouldn't be so hard.

As I have found over the last few years especially, it really, really, really is.

But one thing I have found that is getting easier is grouping the league in three categories. 1) The Penthouse 2) The Townhouse and 3) The Outhouse.

The teams I've predicted to be in the league penthouse the last few years have all made it with just one very close exception. It's also been fairly easy to tab the two teams or so you have to put in the outhouse.

It's always the middle of the pack that's hard to identify before October.

But here goes:


THE PENTHOUSE

It's not set in stone, but these teams seem to have signed the lease to the most luxurious echelon of Ivy football for 2009. Expect them to be in the title hunt for sure.



Bobby Sewall



BROWN



Overview


I don't know how Coach Phil Estes figured out how to turn aroung a perennial doormat into a regular contender for the Ivy title.

But he did.

I don't know how Brown keeps winning big games even though they have weak attendance, poor home facilities, and almost no alumni support.

But they do.

I don't know how Brown will contend for another title this season having to start a brand new QB, a very inexperienced corps of running backs, a defense with all new starting linebackers, and 3/4 of the secondary gone to graduation.

But they just might.


Best Overall Strength:

Wide receivers. Buddy Farnham may be the best wide receiver in the league, and flanker Bobby Sewell is a headache-causing threat as a receiver/scat back.


Biggest Overall Weakness:

Defense. The Bears are missing too many of last year's standouts to feel comfortable about holding a lead this year. Add in the fact that they won't likely be controlling the clock with a power running game, and you have the ingredients for some high scoring games this fall.


Best Returning Player:

Buddy Farnham


Why They'll Win it all in 2009:

Estes has been manufacturing at least decent QB's with a lot of great potential for years now. And from what I've seen of Kyle Newhall-Caballero, the Bear fans have nothing to worry about in the passing department. "KNC" will certainly be good enough to cash in on Farnham and Sewell's talents. Meanwhile, a very talented defensive line led by David Howard and James Develin, will make up for most of the inexperience on the second two lines.


Why They'll Disappoint:

A good QB's best friend is a solid running game, and there's not a lot of evidence Brown has that. The secondary could be a huge problem even a fierce defensive line can't overcome.


What I got right about them last year:

I knew they would pass and pass and pass... and do it successfully.


What I got wrong about them last year:

I didn't think Brown would be strong on the defensive line. But it was and it made the difference between third place and tying for the championship.


Key Game to Watch:

The week 2 game at Harvard is of course the most important game. But if Brown loses that one, the Bears can still prove they're a first division team with a win on the road in week 8 at Yale.






Keiffer Garton



PENN


Overview

After what looked like a steady decline in the program since 2003, Penn turned things around in the second half of the 2008 season and made a run for the Ivy title. The difference was really one player... well, two actually, the elimination of Quaker albatross QB Robert Irvin and his replacement, Keiffer Garton.

Garton ran the ball exceedingly well, beginning in the Brown game, and never really stopped running the Penn offense into respectability after that.

The always strong defense was inspired by the improved offensive play and gave the Quakers every chance to win the title. Those chances were finally dashed when Garton threw a game-deciding pick against Harvard at Franklin Field in week 9. If Garton avoids that interception, Penn probably shares the title with Brown.


Best Overall Strength:

Defense, defense, defense.


Biggest Overall Weakness:

Passing game, depth behind key starters. Garton goes down, and they're back to square one.


Best Returning Player:

Probably DB Chris Wynn, but there are others to watch.


Why They'll Win it all in 2009:

Penn came damn close to winning the title last year, and now all the key players are basically back for '09.

Garton is backed by a talented and deep running back corps led by Michael DiMaggio. All of the most effective receivers are back. And most importantly, three excellent starters on the offensive line return as well.

The defense has 1st Team, or 1st Team caliber, players at every position: Joe Goniprow at defensive lineman, Jake Lewko at linebacker, and Chris Wynn at defensive back.


They even have a great kicker in Andrew Samson.


Why They'll Disappoint:

Garton can run, but running QB's get injured a lot. If Garton goes, this offense is in trouble.

Garton has a good arm, but he hasn't shown he can read defenses well enough to use it properly. He threw just one TD pass against five interceptions last season and had an anemic 5.7 yards per attempt.

The secondary may also be a bit suspect on what should otherwise be the best defense in the league. Wynn will be there, but he will be surrounded by new starters who may not play up to his level. Super-looking transfer Fred Craig played as a DB for Stanford last year, but I think he makes more sense as an outside linebacker in the Ivies. I'm not sure he'll be asked to play safety here.

Finally, there's the schedule. Penn will have to win tough road games at Brown and Harvard to really get into the driver's seat for a title. It's doable, but not easy for sure.


What I got right about them last year:

I knew that former QB Robert Irvin was a big mistake for this team going on three seasons. Sure enough, Coach Bagnoli finally benched him and went with Garton. Penn's fortunes immediately improved.


What I got wrong about them last year:

I thought the defense would get worse. It actually got better.


Key Game to Watch:

Waiting until week 9 at Harvard seems really too long to get a handle on how good this Quaker team really is. But there's no denying that the matchup against the Crimson looks a lot like a potential title game. But I'm going to say that week 7 at Brown will be a key game too. Penn needs to prove it can beat a team on the road that it lost to at home in 2008.




Cheng Ho



HARVARD


Overview

And that brings us to the Crimson. Harvard has unquestionably been the best Ivy team this decade and they'd like nothing more in Cambridge than to wrap up the 2000's with another ring.

Though the Crimson officially shared the title with Brown last season, I thought the Bears were a slightly better team as evidenced by their win over Harvard in Providence in week 2.

Offensively, Harvard was extremely tough, but I noticed a slight step down for the defense in 2008, and there are some signs that decay could continue in 2009.

Of course the big question is at the QB position, where the Cantabs lose Chris Pizzotti. Pizzotti was more than just an Ivy MVP. He had a great arm, and even better sense of timing, and great size for signal caller.

Replacing him with a QB who can motivate and lead this otherwise very experienced offense will be tough, and Harvard's entire season rides on it.

Best Overall Strength:

I'm going to say skill players, even though the QB position is such a question mark. The wide receiving corps, led by 1st Team All Ivy Matt Luft and up-and-comers Adam Chrisis and Chris Lorditch will help whoever gets the quarterback spot get his feet wet early. Running backs Cheng Ho and Gino Gordon make a great 1-2 punch, and if Ho stays healthy he could be the top back in the Ivies. Tight End Nicolai Schwarzkopf shows great promise.



Biggest Overall Weakness:

Unknown QB situation, loss of depth at linebacker.


Best Returning Player:

WR Matt Luft



Why They'll Win it all in 2009:

There's still a lot of returning talent on the offensive and defensive lines, and the secondary is almost 100% stacked with experienced starters. Even if the eventual QB isn't All Ivy material, unless he's really a super liability this team will be in every game. Throw in the homefield advantage they'll have against teams like Penn and Brown, and you've got the ingredients for a title run.


Why They'll Disappoint:

It's possible Pizzotti was the biggest reason why some of the receivers like Chrisis and Lorditch looked so good last year. In other words, the Crimson might really need a QB who can elevate everyone else's play on the team and that's a tall order for a newbie.

Also, Harvard's D-line looks strong but not as dominant as it has in recent years. The Crimson really have relied on the pass rush and run-snuffing from the front four so much since 2004 that it's possible any drop off here will send them disproportionately off track.


What I got right about them last year:

I thought the offense would be better than it was in 2007, and it was.


What I got wrong about them last year:

Nothing much.



Key Game to Watch:

Week two at home against Brown will give us that early feel for what Harvard can do. That will be another one of those Friday night games at Harvard Stadium, so we'll have extra time to give that game extra attention.






THE TOWNHOUSE

The teams at this level have lots of great weapons, like the amenities in a dee-luxe apartment in the sky. BUT, there are also just enough questions on their mortgage application to keep them from the most exclusive addresses until we get those questions answered. Columbia, is one of the three teams I believe that belong in this section. the others are:





Patrick Witt



YALE


Overview


It's a good thing Yale has a new coach, because otherwise Eli fans would probably just be gloomy about losing their best defensive player in a decade and the best running back in maybe longer than a decade.

As it is, the enthusiasm that comes with bringing new Coach Tom Williams in will be tempered by the fact that there are precious few answers to the questions about who will replace RB Mike McLeod and All-World linebacker Bobby Abare.

But there is hope in New Haven thanks to a key transfer, good experience in the passing game, and some leaders returning on defense.


Best Overall Strength:

I think the much-maligned receiving corps during the McLeod years was actually not untalented. They'll take the lead this year in setting the tone for the team with new QB Patrick Witt, a transfer from Nebraska. Witt is supposedly in a battle for the starting job with last year's QB Brook Hart, but I'm not buying that. Witt is a talented passer and runner and if he's not playing every down by week two against Cornell, something is really wrong in the world.


Biggest Overall Weakness:

The running backs and the offensive line are really inexperienced. The 2006 Princeton Tigers are the only team at any level that I can remember that had a successful year with that kind of situation.


Best Returning Player:

DB Paul Rice


Why They'll Win it all in 2009:

Patrick Witt will play MVP-level ball right out of the gate and blow all the opponents away. His receivers will finally get their chance to shine, and the defense will only have to be good enough to protect the big leads Witt and co. will rack up.


Why They'll Disappoint:

Williams will take longer to learn the hard lessons about the Ivies coming from a traditionally strong program not used to having to start the season so shorthanded at key positions. The running game will be a disaster and the defensive line won't scare anybody.


What I got right about them last year:

I knew the passing game would not really win any games for the Elis and thus, they struggled to score points all year long.


What I got wrong about them last year:

I thought the defense overall would not be as strong as it was. The defense may have been the best in the league last season considering the "help" they got from the "O".


Key Game to Watch

With so many new faces, the week 2 game at home against what should be a weak Cornell team will be very telling. Any problems here, and it will most likely be a very long year for the Elis.




Dan Kopolovich


PRINCETON


Overview

Like most of the teams in the Ivies, the Tigers have some tough questions to answer about quarterback, but they can feel good about bringing back defending Ivy rushing champ Jordan Culbreath and a very experienced offensive line.

Another thing to remember is that this Princeton team lost a lot of very close games to some good teams last season. There's no reason to completely write them off as contenders considering many key players are returning for 2009.


Best Overall Strength:

Culbreath. He didn't really kill too many teams on his own last season, but he almost always kept the Tigers in the game.


Biggest Overall Weakness:

Another new QB with no experience is going to have to do the job. Princeton got lucky with Brian Anderson in his first and only year as a starter last season, but can they pull that off two years in a row?


Best Returning Player:

Culbreath


Why They'll Win it all in 2009:

Maybe they WILL get lucky at QB, and there are some good deep threats like Trey Peacock at WR to make any passer happy.

The defense has some inexperience up front, but there is good talent at linebacker and in the secondary. I like DB Dan Kopolovich a lot.


Why They'll Disappoint:

The Tigers have to play Brown, Penn AND Harvard all on the road. That seems like a recipe for disaster. Also, the depth situation is an issue. If Culbreath goes down with an injury, or is somehow neutralized, it's hard to see how Princeton wins too many games.

What I got right about them last year:

I knew much of their season would depend on the defensive line, and it did. That group ended up having a decent year, but they were pushed around in the key games.


What I got wrong about them last year:

Like everyone else, I didn't guess that Jordan Culbreath would do so well at running back.


Key Game to Watch

Week 3 against the Lions is a crucial game. The Tigers have slipped by Columbia the last two seasons in the Ivy opener and that's allowed them to stay in contention for a decent amount of time during those seasons. Another win against Lions and this team will believe in itself for another 2-3 weeks at least. A loss, and Princeton will have to deal with a tough new world.


THE OUTHOUSE

Okay, I realize the term "outhouse" is pretty rough, but I like the idea of using it because it rhymes with penthouse and townhouse, and it's a word that came back into the national vernacular when Harvard footballer-turned-actor Tommy Lee Jones used it in The Fugitive.

This is the designation for the teams that really don't have a serious shot at contending for the title and everyone would agree that they are really in rebuilding mode.



Shawn Abuhoff



DARTMOUTH


Overview

0-10 is 0-10 and there's no one at Dartmouth making any excuses. But there is a lot of "there's nowhere to go but up" talk in Hanover, and while rhetorically true, tell that to the guys who played at Columbia in 1985, 1986, and 1987 who all came off winless seasons only to repeat the "feat" the following year.

What you do have at Dartmouth is a coach who is in the hot seat, despite a new president and no Athletic Director in tow. But thanks to some very vigorous lineup substitutions last season, the Big Green have a good shot to improve with a decent number of game-tested players.

Best Overall Strength:

The secondary, led by Shawn Abuhoff should be strong enough to keep Dartmouth in some games.


Biggest Overall Weakness:

The defensive line just didn't stop the run or sack the QB last season at all. They have such a long way to go in this crucial area.

Best Returning Player:

Wide receiver Tim McManus. He's injured right now, but should be back in time for the Ivy opener against Penn.


Why They'll Win it all in 2009:

Uh... no.


Why They'll Disappoint:

The team could lose focus after the usual first five games of Hell against UNH, Colgate, Holy Cross, Penn, and Ohio State. (Okay, they're not playing the Buckeyes, but you get my drift).

This is a really young group of players again and it's hard to keep them working their hardest when they're staring at what would be a 17 game losing streak if they don't upset someone in the first half of the season.


What I got right about them last year:

I knew they would not contend for the title. I know, easy one, but it's the truth.


What I got wrong about them last year:

I thought they would have a better season thanks to Milan Williams, who I considered was a top RB in the league. He was injured and ineffective for much of the year as it turned out.

Key Game to Watch:

Week 6 at home against the Lions. It still looks like the Big Green's best chance to win their first game in 2009.



Bryan Walters



CORNELL


Overview

A lot of people will look at the Big Red's 4-6 record last season and think: "Eh, not so bad."

But that record hides the real story. Cornell jumped out to 3-0 in 2008 before the bottom fell out. Opposing teams started to defend better against the Big Red's passing game, and passing was just about all Cornell had to offer.

Now a team that boasted 33 seniors last year is filled with really young players. And unlike Dartmouth, most of those young guys didn't get playing time last year.

This has all the making of a rough year in Ithaca.


Best Overall Strength:

Well, I guess you'd have to say kick returning with the very talented Bryan Walters coming back for his senior year. But special teams, particularly return and coverage teams, are usually made up of underclassmen, and they may not be good enough to help Walters reach his full potential.


Biggest Overall Weakness:

This is another Ivy team that will have to start a new QB, and unlike teams like Harvard and Brown, the supporting cast is not as strong on offense.

Best Returning Player:

Linebacker Chris Costello


Why They'll Win it all in 2009:

Each and every one of Cornell's road opponents will have some kind of critical failure at their home stadiums and be forced to play the games at Schoelkopf Field.

Oh wait, that can't happen.

Nevermind.


Why They'll Disappoint:

The Big Red still can't win on the road, and now they may not have the talent to beat anyone but the weakest teams at home.


What I got right about them last year:

I knew that 5th year senior RB Luke Siwula would not even come close to posting another 1,000 yard year.


What I got wrong about them last year:

You could have knocked me over with a feather when Cornell beat Yale in week 2. After that, things pretty much went as scripted.


Key Game to Watch:

Again, I'd say week 2 vs. Yale. If the Big Red can put up a decent showing or somehow win this game at the Bowl, the younger players should get sold on battling through every game for the next eight weeks.