2009 Columbia Football Forecast

Overview

It's fair to say that there is a sense of optimism surrounding the Columbia program as Head Coach Norries Wilson begins his fourth season at the helm.

Recruiting has been one of Coach Wilson's strengths, and now this Lion team is almost 100% made up of his recruits, his players, his students of the game.

Of course optimism has its degrees. There was optimism last season as well, mostly because Columbia was coming off a 1-9, 0-7 Ivy, record in 2007 and the conventional wisdom was simply: "we can't get much worse."

But the 2008 Columbia Lions did a lot more than just improve in a relative way. They put together the building blocks of a competitive team. And with the overwhelming number of those building blocks returning for 2009, there is good reason for real optimism this season. The kind of optimism that has a lot of people believing the Lions could have a winning season.

Much of that informed optimism centers on the Columbia defense. Last season's positive turnaround under new defensive coordinator Aaron Kelton, (who took over when his predecessor Lou Ferrari stepped down unexpectedly in August), was obvious, especially in the crucial area of stopping the run. Only one key starter has graduated from that defense, and there's enough young talent to keep the momentum going.

The offense, which again failed to score 20 points per game in 2008, presents more of a mixed picture. But there are solid reasons for optimism here thanks to a veteran and accomplished offensive line. Two years ago, Coach Wilson looked me in the eye and said he wished the Lions could line up in the "I" on every down and just run the ball right up the middle... but he didn't have the horses to do it. This season, with four O-linemen with extensive starting experience and one new starer with enough talent to make even a pessimistic coach get excited, the horses might just be there.

The more hopeful among us can also point to a rich talent pool at the skill positions that includes a quarterback who can run better than any other in the Ivies, and a game-breaking wide receiver who just needs to get his hands on the ball more. The pieces are there on offense, they just need to be assembled the right way.

Special teams presents a real challenge for the optimists, with one big exception. We know we'll have brand new people doing the punting and placekicking work this year, and that's always scary. But the Lions do have the best return threat in the league to help offset whatever serious fears the fans may have about this unit overall.

But then there's the schedule.

There seem to be no easy marks on this year's slate. Three of the first four games this season are on the road and the Ivy teams that look the weakest on the schedule will get the advantage of facing the Lions on their home fields in 2009. The fact is that Columbia has just one road win over the last three seasons. The Lions will need to rise to the challenge away from Wien Stadium rather than wilt under the pressure to achieve its goals for this year.

One encouraging aspect of the schedule, at least the in-conference aspect of it, is the fact that so many Ivy League teams are undergoing major changes at key positions. The league seems more wide open than it has in many years, and you'd have to be very pessimistic not to recognize that this situation gives the Lions a unique opportunity to rise through the ranks.

But to do that, Columbia needs to play like the veteran team that it is. This is the most seniors, 26, the Lions have featured on the varsity roster since 1996. If the Lions come out of the gate looking sloppy and rusty, that "veteran advantage" will turn out to be a mirage. This is a team that could really distinguish itself by knowing what it wants to do on every down and acting accordingly. By the time they take on Princeton in week three, that's going to be essential.

And getting out of the gate strong is also important. This is a team that could have won each of its first five games in 2008 but ended up winning none. Columbia's veterans need to present the sense of urgency to win in each game to the younger players who may not realize how precious each chance to gain victory truly is.

It's time for this group of Lions to Carpe Diem.



This is M.A. Olawale's Moment


And as I will spell out a little more later, I think the one man who can help the team achieve that more than any other is QB Millie Olawale. In many ways, this team will go as far as Olawale takes them.


Lou Miller leads a stellar defensive unit


Best Overall Strength:

I like the defense on this Columbia team more than any Lion defense I've seen in 13 years. No, it's not as good as the Marcellus Wiley-Rory Wilfork unit of 1996, at least not yet, but it does have at least four top-flight stars and lots of players on the brink of playing All-Ivy ball.

Those four stars are the two returning 1st Team All Ivy members Lou Miller and Alex Gross, plus last year's frosh sensation Owen Fraser and the "old veteran" of the defensive backfield, Andy Shalbrack.

But this defense also will need to belong to guys like Calvin Otis, Kalasi Huggins and perhaps most importantly junior Marc Holloway, if the Lions want to step it up a notch and go from being a good defense to a championship defense.

Otis and Huggins showed a lot of athletic ability on the field. But the starting corners for 2008 must pick it up this year to make this season better. There were a number of games last year where Columbia's opponents were able to beat the secondary on deep balls. In some ways, this was because of the Lions' major improvement against the run. The other teams needed to go deep on us more because the running options just weren't there as much. This was particularly the case in the Princeton game, when the Lions shut down eventual Ivy rushing champ Jordan Culbreath, but had a heck of time containing long bombs to the Tiger wideouts at crucial moments in the game.

But I remain bullish on the secondary because Otis and Huggins played pretty well overall even though Otis was just a sophomore and Huggins was only a freshman last year, and the safeties Shalbrack and Mehrer were so strong. Another year of maturity will help the corners start playing better, because talent and speed is not something Otis and Huggins lack.


Alex Gross


Having talented veterans like Gross, Corey Cameron, and Matt Moretto returning at linebacker is a true luxury. The tough job of replacing middle linebacker Drew Quinn is a crucial key to the season for this defense. Based on the public pronouncements from Coach Wilson since spring practice, the junior Holloway has the inside track to getting the job. But sophomore Nick Mistretta from the vaunted Bergen Catholic football kingdom is pushing for his chance as well.

Middle linebacker is so important, because it's a unique physical and mental challenge. Most teams rely on the MLB to call the defensive plays and make sure everyone else is adjusting properly. Whether it's Holloway, Mistretta, or someone else getting this job this season, it's imperative that the Lions don't feel the loss of Quinn too much throughout the year.

But the linebacking corps is unusually talented and deep this year. 5th year senior Corey Cameron, who made great strides as a starter last season, is back. A number of very talented freshmen are also joining this group.

The defensive line looks primed for a great season with Miller, who led the Ivies in sacks and tackles for a loss last year, and the impressive Fraser, who played big, fast, and smart at tackle despite being just a frosh in 2008. Miller and Fraser look like they will be the leaders, but the roster seems filled with other potential standouts on the line. That includes Matt Bashaw, the rising senior pass rushing specialist who missed most of '08 due to injury. Sophomore Chris Groth impressed last year and seems ready for more. Here too, some impressive looking freshmen could push for playing time.

Depth and talent like we haven't seen in years is what defines this defense. But that's not all. There's something else about this group that the stats or rosters don't exactly tell you. I don't think any one of the eight games Columbia lost last year was because of the defense. That includes the losses to Harvard and Brown, where turnovers and other offensive problems were the true culprits in the Crimson and the Bears breaking past the 40-point level. Yes there were long bombs allowed during the Princeton game, but the defense shut down the Tigers' running game all day and gave the team every chance to win.

If the offense had cut down on the turnovers and scored just a few more points, the 2008 Lions could have been as good as 7-3. If the defense uses its experience to get even better in 2009, the sky's the limit.


Biggest Overall Weakness:

With the new personnel Columbia will have to break in for the kicking game, it would be easy to cite special teams as a weakness here. But for me, that's really more of an unknown. Plus, with Austin Knowlin potentially breaking lots of punts and kickoffs for scores, it's hard to lump special teams as a whole into the "bad" pile.

It's also easy to point to last year's 17.1 points per game and say the offense is a weakness. But the personality of that unit changed greatly when Millie Olawale took over as the starting QB, and Columbia's two wins in 2008 came after Olawale took the helm.

With a strong offensive line and the huge talent that is Knowlin at wide receiver, it's hard to paint the offense with such a weak broad brush.

However, the simple matter of scoring points is something that needs to change for the better for the Lions in 2009. Until the points scored start to match the improvements in yards gained, this can at least be considered an area of concern until the offense proves otherwise.


Austin Knowlin may be the best receiver in the Ivies


Once again, depth should help here. The wide receiving corps is filled with great players. Knowlin is the leader of course, but fell captain and senior Taylor Joseph is a great possession receiver, 2007 freshman standout Nico Guttierez seems more recovered from the injury that kept him mostly out of the mix last season. His fellow junior Mike Stephens had a great first year with the varsity in 2008, and seems ready for more. There are several more players who look ready to contribute to receivers coach Aaron Smith's unit.

Running back is more of a question. Senior Ray Rangel has long been a leading candidate here, but whether the Lions will use him along with a fullback remains to be seen. There are a number of speedy runners on the roster who provide the coaches with more options than we usually see at CU.

But the truth is, Columbia's biggest need is something more intangible. It's been a long time since the Lions have had a winning season and the culture of winning is just not here yet. The best we can say is that this year's seniors tasted how relatively sweet the 5-5 season in 2006 truly was. A team with a keener killer instinct last season wouldn't have dropped each and every one of those first five games. This more veteran team must not just want to win, they're going to have to believe they will win, even when they're behind on the scoreboard and things look bad.

This confidence can't come from the coaches on the sidelines, no matter how good or forceful they are. This is a matter for the players and the players alone. The '94 team had Mike Cavanaugh playing that role. The '96 squad leaned on Wiley and Wilfork. Who will do it in 2009? My bet is Knowlin will be one of those leaders, along with a number of players on defense like Shalbrack and Gross.

But no one has the chance to be a better on the field leader than the quarterback. That's just the way it is in football. Right now, we don't know if Olawale will take that lead. But he did stay on campus for the summer and certainly knows how to electrify his teammates with his play on the field. Stats aside, if Olawale gets the message across to this team that he's ready to lead them into battle, the Lions will thrive in '09.


Best Returning Player:

There are a lot of individual talents on this squad, but I've said many times that wide receiver Austin Knowlin is the kind of guy who makes it worth it to buy a ticket every week of the season. Throw in his status as the lead kick returner and possible threat out of the backfield from time to time, and you have a real game breaker.

Without Craig Hormann '08 doing the quarterbacking last season, the Lions had trouble getting Knowlin the ball as much as they wanted to. Getting Knowlin a minimum of 50 receptions is an important goal I would set for the team this season. But if "AK" ends up getting into the backfield and getting his touches from that route... and it works... then that's fine too.

A close second on that "best player" list is Lou Miller. Miller is a great pass rusher, an underrated run stopper, and just a great competitor. His success as a wrestler this offseason is further proof of just how srappy he can be. After leading the Ivies in sacks and TFL's last season, Miller is a player you have to keep your eye on whenever the Lions are on defense.

2007 Ivy Rookie of the Year, and 2008 First Team All Ivy linebacker Alex Gross deserves to get into this best player mix as well. Gross covers the outside so well against the pass and the run that I can't help of think of all the times Columbia has burned along the sidelines by missed tackles in the past, (the 10-3 to Brown in 1998 in particular comes to mind). Gross blew away the competition as he lead the Ivies in tackles last season, finishing a full 11 tackles ahead of his nearest challenger. Gross is just a junior this season and he seems intent on kicking it up another notch.

And then there's Olawale. If Millie becomes more of an effective passer and keeps up his running skills, he has the potential to be not just the most exciting player on the team, but in all of the Ivy League. But you knew that already.


Why They'll Win it all in 2009:

Columbia certainly doesn't seem to have the "inside track" to the top that Penn, Harvard and Brown enjoy. But it takes less than a lethal dose of LSD this year to see how the Lions could grab the title.

First off, the defense is already strong, and could get a lot stronger this year. Imagine how good the Lions would have been with a better overall pass defense last year? Well, the secondary will be better in 2009.

Second, you have the little fact that no one in this league can stop Olawale as a runner. He had the longest run from scrimmage in the Ivies last season and he seems to have gotten stronger in the offseason. When he comes at you with a head of steam, Olawale is like a younger Donovan McNab; built like a linebacker, fast as a wide out, and still with the arm of a John Elway.

If Olawale improves as a passer, and he's certainly worked on that for a long time, the Columbia offense could rack up points in droves.

And the Lions have more returning seniors than any other Ivy team, except Princeton, which has the same amount at 26. These are not just bench-warming seniors like the lion's share of the 33 seniors on Cornell's squad last year. These seniors include Knowlin, Miller, Olawale, Cameron, John Seiler, Evan Sanford, Matt Bashaw, Andy Shalbrack, Ray Rangel, and Taylor Joseph, key players all.

These are all young men who know the value of each game and how precious the opportunity to win can be. They've been through some serious ups and downs and have been battle tested time and again.

And the rest of the league seems weaker this season than it has in years. Harvard returns a lot of key players, but QB is not one of them. Penn has all the tools, but one injury to any of a few key players and the Quakers are in trouble. Brown seems to have a good new quarterback, but the running game and secondary are in question. Yale and Princeton have lots of questions. Cornell and Dartmouth have serious issues. The Lions look relatively experienced, deep and talented this year. This is a unique chance and Columbia will take it.




Why They'll Disappoint:

This is the worse case scenario section of this forecast, so avert your eyes if you want to stay 100% positive. Okay, you've been warned.

The aforementioned challenges of winning on the road and the offense's need to prove it can score adequate points are the two biggest reasons why the Lions may not cash in on this year's optimism.

And the Lions need to find the mental toughness they'll need to overcome what could be a very tough start with three rough road games in the first four weeks.

But what's interesting this season is that the usual landmines blocking Columbia's football success seem much less daunting this season. Depth is not as big of a problem, in fact this Lion team is unusually strong and experienced up and down the depth chart. There's certainly plenty of talent.


Key Game to Watch

With a season opener less than two miles away from their own home stadium, you would have to say the game against Fordham will tell you a lot about this team. And I believe it will.

But the real game that will tell you all you need to know about this year's Lions will be the week three contest at Princeton. Columbia has come close to beating the Tigers the last two seasons only to see late turnovers break their hearts. Some of the shine in the players' eyes in 2007 and 2008 disappeared after those losses and they never got it back. Princeton certainly seems more vulnerable this year than last, and it is the Ivy League opener for both teams. This is the game to watch for sure.


5 Players You May Not Know... But You Should

These guys could all have a major impact this coming season, even though you may not have seen them play so much until now.


1) Zack Kourouma

The junior tailback had some flashes last year, including a pair of spectacular touchdowns. He's a dangerous weapon as a pass receiver coming out of the backfield, and that may be a special asset for Olawale as he gets used to passing more. He's an exciting player who may make a major splash in '09.


2) Jeff Adams

The sophomore left tackle got unique praise from Coach Wilson during the Ivy League
media day teleconference last month. Anyone who saw him overwhelming upperclassmen defensive ends in practice last year knows why he got that acclaim. If the Lions start running the ball successfully to their left over and over, and if the QB's stay safe on their blind side, Jeff Adams will be a big reason why.


3) Derek Jancisin

This senior WR with the great size and a lot of ability to go with it could finally break into the regular mix in the passing game. Because of his size, he could also clear the way for shorter receivers like Knowlin and Mike Stephens to get more open.


4) Ian Quirk

The junior right guard got bigger over the summer after winning a rare 0-line starting slot as a sophomore last year. He figures to play a big role in the running attack this year.


5) Augie Williams

With A.J. Maddox out, Williams becomes the key man on kick coverage. Watch for him making plays on Lion punts and kickoffs.


Final Statement

Yes I am optimistic about the 2009 Columbia football season. So is just about everyone else who watches Ivy football.

There are varying degrees of that optimism to be sure, but the "inside dope" among the pundits is positive.

All that remains is to start winning on the field. That's the hard part.