Tuesday, December 30, 2008

8+ 8 = Winning Season?



Every college team undergoes the tough loss of graduating seniors from year to year. Columbia football will be no exception with the graduation of longtime key stars like Drew Quinn, Jon Rocholl, Jordan Davis, Mike Brune, Ralph DeBernardo, and Phil Mitchell, among others.

But if senior linebacker Corey Cameron gets 5th-year status from the league, then the Lions will be returning an unusually high eight defensive starters and eight offensive starters in 2009. Among those 16 returning starters are four all-Ivy players and several other seniors who have been basically starters since they were freshmen.

The biggest holes to fill will be at middle linebacker, where Drew Quinn has ruled the defensive roost. And Columbia fans learned how dangerous losing a key player at that position can be after Adam Brekke graduated and the Lions struggled to plug up the middle properly in 2007.

It's not clear just how much Columbia will miss Phil Mitchell, who had very strong 2006 and 2007 seasons but seemed to drop off in 2008. I say SEEMED because Mitchell still drew a lot of double teams and clearly freed up other defenders to make plays. But the emergence of Lou Miller and Owen Fraser on the D-line is more than a little encouraging.

Incidentally, Miller is back with the wrestling team this "spring," (I love how we get to call this second semester "spring," when only about two weeks of the semester is actually spring), and he placed third in the Wilkes Open in Pennsylvania.

The entire secondary and all the key reserves in the defensive backfield also return. Critics will point to Columbia's 7th-in-the-Ivies finish in overall pass defense and scoff at that returning squad. But that would be a mistake, because what those stats don't tell you is that the Lions were passed on much more often in 2008 because of the tremendous improvement in Columbia's run defense. Only Brown, Harvard and Yale faced more pass attempts this season than the Lions.

The stats also don't show the incredible talent displayed by corners Calvin Otis and Kalasi Huggins, and backup corner A.J. Maddox.

At safety, Andy Shalbrack had another great season that unfortunately defied what you see in the stats for the most part. Adam Mehrer had something of a breakthrough season.

Columbia's offense did not accomplish the same levels of improvement posted by the defense when it came to scoring points. But the marked improvement in the running game was encouraging. Three of the starting offensive linemen do return as does the entire wide receiving corps and the entire starting backfield with one exception, (Jordan Davis).

I have no idea if the Lions will use the option offense more or less often in 2009, but either way, the team will have more experience when they do use that strategy and that helps a lot.

A bigger question is who will get the most snaps at QB, and that will be something I'm sure we'll be debating here for much of the next nine months.

But the number of returning starters on a team that showed a marked talent improvement, if not a marked improvement in overall wins, is very encouraging right now. Does this put undue pressure on these returning players to perform? Maybe, but that pressure doesn't come from here and probably would never match the pressure these scholar athletes put on themselves every day.

So as much as this part of the year is spent focusing on our incoming recruits, let's not forget that it's our returning players who are more likely to make a difference on the field in 2009.

Luckily for us, that number of returning players is bigger than it has been in many, many years.

15 Comments:

At Tue Dec 30, 04:19:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jake, as along time admirer of your work I would take modest exception to your use of the word "stars" to describe some solid ballplayers who certainly were major contributors but really don't fit the description of a "star". In my opinion, a "star" is somebody who is a consistent difference maker, a player around whom our opponents have to game plan. A starter is not necessarily a "star". We have one real offensive "star" on our team, Austin Knowlin. He makes a difference. We have two excellent players on defense in Miller and Gross who have been given star level recognition. We also have a few othe rexcellent players with "star" potential, such as Fraser, Shalbrack, Millie, Otis and perhaps a few others. but sometimes we build up players and put unrealisitc expectations on them. I don't know if we did Phil Mitchell, certainly a solid player, any favors by plugging him the way he was often plugged.

 
At Tue Dec 30, 04:29:00 AM GMT+7, Blogger Jake said...

Well, that's a fair point. I guess we do have different definitions of the word "stars," (clearly mine is a lower threshold), but overblown expectations can be a problem. I do think of all of our effective starters as stars most of the time.

 
At Tue Dec 30, 06:17:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would use a superlative in describing Lou Miller's ability to pull enough weight to already wrestle at 197 for Columbia. If Miller weighed anywhere near his 220 roster weight at the end of the football season, that's amazing. The wrestling team has some very talented big men including Ryan Flores, one of the top heavyweights in the country, Miller, and freshman Ryan Sutherland, the 2008 Virginia State Champion who was also a First-Team All-State High School Football player.

 
At Tue Dec 30, 06:34:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Based upon his performance in the final four games of the season, I certainly agree that M.A. Olawale is a potential offensive star. Anyone who saw him play during those games had to be in awe of his running ability. Millie did a good job at quarterback during the final four games of the season. I see Columbia as very strong at quarterback next year with three talented players in Olawale, Shane Kelly and Jerry Bell.

 
At Tue Dec 30, 09:18:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jake- with this many starters returning and a solid recruiting class, the biggest problem that NW will have is tempering expectations.

Can you say Mangini....?

 
At Tue Dec 30, 10:22:00 PM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wasn't Lou Miller a LB his freshman year? Jake, do you see Lou returning to OLB next year?

 
At Tue Dec 30, 11:50:00 PM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jake: Not sure what was intended about the comment on Shalbrack "At safety, Andy Shalbrack had another great season that unfortunately defied what you see in the stats for the most part." Unless I am missing the point, which is entirely possible at this stage, sounds a bit like "damning with faint praise." Am I wrong?

Not to harp on it, but Shalbrack has in his first three (3) seasons more starts, total tackles and more INTs than any other DB in the league (other than maybe Bax from Dartmouth). That includes all of the All Ivy (and 2nd teamers and HMs) DBs this year. And for this he gets no post-season love from the Ivies? This still is unconscionable and unforgiveable.

The Neckman

 
At Tue Dec 30, 11:53:00 PM GMT+7, Blogger Jake said...

Neckman:

No, I meant to say that Shalbrack's true value is not evident enough by his stats. He's better than his total INT's and even tackles indicate.

 
At Tue Dec 30, 11:56:00 PM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Any hope Masorti will return to the team?
Is the FY Daniel's decision not to play final?

 
At Wed Dec 31, 06:33:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks, Jake, for the clarification. I appreciate your doing that. I totally agree with you on this topic.

Have a Happy New Year. Can't wait for football season in the Ivy League 2009.

The Neckman.

 
At Wed Dec 31, 10:06:00 PM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

When asked about how many "stars" it took to make a good football team, a very successful Big 10 coach recently stated "4"-and 1 needed to be a K and/or P.
The rest of team have to be "good" players, and of course there has to be good chemistry with the coaches.
The Columbia team of '09 seems to have this template...at least they are closer to it than in the past few years. We will see.

 
At Wed Dec 31, 11:14:00 PM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Dallas Cowboys prove that having a surfeit of stars doesn't make a winner. There is now a very thin line between us and the very best teams in the league. Take away the Harvard game and we were the equal of every team we played. Certain teams know how to win; to deal with adversity; with crummy officiating; with bad breaks; and sometimes with unlucky breaks. This is a game in which emotion and relentlessness are as important as talent. We need to break the syndrome of "here it goes again" and learn how to make the crucial third down stops, how to avoid mistakes, and how to ignore the naysayers. I take heart from Norries'retention rate; that shows me that we have a coach for whom our kids want to play.

 
At Thu Jan 01, 12:23:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wiser words have rarely been spoken.

-Dr.V

 
At Thu Jan 01, 01:38:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Agree that increasing talent and depth are a great start, but that more will be needed. An increased desire to excel that will lead to more offseason preparation by the players; coaches finding the best position to maximize the players talent, etc. And, of course, little luck can go a long ways(minimal injuries and/or turnovers, etc).

 
At Thu Jan 01, 08:25:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great comments but I would add that once MA went down, we were steamrolled by a clearly better Brown team. They were clearly deserving of a share of the Ivy title. So outside of Harvard and Brown, we were right in every game.

 

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