The Arms Race

I like to call Kyle Newhall-Caballero "KNC"


Now that we know which Ivy veterans are coming back for 2010, it’s time for a frank discussion about which returning players truly are the best at each key position.

Today let’s look at quarterback:

The only serious contenders for this title are Harvard’s Collier Winters, Yale’s Patrick Witt, Brown’s Kyle Newhall-Caballero, and Columbia’s Sean Brackett.

Witt had some flashes of brilliance, (unfortunately most of which came against Columbia in week 7), but didn’t have the consistency to seriously be considered the best veteran Ivy QB coming into 2010. Interceptions were a particular problem for him last season and he must improve in that area for Yale to jumpstart its offense. Witt still has all the tools, and you could argue that his transfer from Nebraska required a shakedown cruise that could now be over.

Brackett started four games as a frosh, won two, and showed superior talent as a runner and a passer. He has a very strong arm, but didn’t really pass the ball enough, (just 63 attempts), to get a the strongest verdict on his accuracy. Nevertheless, he did throw four TD passes, and had a decent 54% completion rate. Brackett needs to cut down on his interceptions, (he threw just three, but that was one for every 21 pass attempts, the same as Witt), and boost that completion rate.

One talent Brackett really showcased was his quick running ability. He ran 53 times for 287 yards, a 5.4 yards per carry average, and a TD. Most of those stats were earned in his sparkling 171 yard rushing performance in the win over Brown that earned him Ivy Rookie of the Week honors.

Brackett has a great arm, great legs, and a very good sense of timing and decision making on option plays. He could very easily be the best QB in this league this year and the next three years. But there isn’t quite enough of a total sample of his stats to definitively say he is the best signal caller coming into 2010.

Next up is Harvard QB Collier Winters, who led the league in passing efficiency last season and was a very good runner in his own right.

But poor Winters has two strikes against him. First, he may not even be the starting QB this fall. I think Andrew Hatch has an inside track on this job despite his transfer away, transfer back, status. I believe Winters has been handed a very tough break here and I would be happy to be wrong and see Winters take every snap of 2010.

The second problem Winters faces is his track record in the most important game of 2009. With a chance to clinch the Ivy title at home against Penn, Winters and Harvard’s offense faltered badly in a 17-7 loss. Having offensive problems against the 2009 Quakers is nothing to be ashamed of, (Penn allowed just 9.5 points per game last year), but Winters really struggled in the game going 10-for-23 passing for just 135 yards. The defining moment of the game came on the ground for Winters as he had two shots to run it in from the 2 late in the fourth quarter but came away with nothing.

Winters is no doubt a very good QB, but football coaches like to obsess about improving as opposed to maintaining what they already have. I think Tim Murphy and company will roll the dice with Hatch, and that will be that for Winters. It’s either that or kick themselves all year for not taking Sean Brackett when they had the chance 18 months ago!

That brings us to the best returning pure passer in the Ivies, Kyle Newhall Caballero. No one came even close to “KNC’s” 2,709 yards passing in 2009, (Winters was second with 1,861). He also blew away the competition with a 62.7% completion rate. I got a chance to watch him play twice last season, in a preseason scrimmage and the week 10 game against the Lions. As they say these days, he really throws a "nice ball."

But the jury is still out on how strong a year Newhall Caballero will have without receivers named Sewall and Farnham to throw to. He threw too many interceptions, 14, to feel comfortable with all the time under center. Brown lost all three games against its fellow “first division” finishers in 2009, and in each game KNC threw more than 40 passes and could not break the key six yards per attempt mark. (Most pundits see 6 yards per attempt as a baseline number for passers and seven yards per attempt is a gold standard that’s kind of like batting .300 in baseball).

I’m sure Phil Estes would like to see the Bears run the ball well enough to avoid too many 40-attempt games by his starting QB in 2010. But whether he throws the ball 40, 30 or even 25 times per game, Newhall Caballero needs to come through a bit better in the big games. Like Winters, KNC has to prove he can come through in the clutch in the big game.

But all in all, he is the best overall QB coming back to the league this year.

So here’s how I’d rank the top four Ivy QB’s for the preseason:

1. Kyle Newhall-Caballero, Brown
2. Collier Winters, Harvard
3. Sean Brackett, Columbia
4. Patrick Witt, Yale

Some of the other returnees, like Penn’s Keiffer Garton and Billy Ragone, have tremendous potential but just didn’t provide enough of a sample from 2009 to seriously make the list at this point.