Columbia-Brown Keys

Columbia is a 7.5 point underdog at Brown Saturday.

Overview

I don't think mental attitude has played a bigger role in any game this season for either team than it will tomorrow at Brown Stadium. On one hand, Columbia has to be coming into this contest feeling good about last week's long-awaited Ivy win over Cornell. On the other hand, Brown has to be discouraged by losing two very close games in a row to Yale at home and then to Dartmouth in Hanover. And of course you have to consider the fact that this is the final game for 25 seniors on the Brown squad and 15 seniors at Columbia.

The team with the more positive mental attitude will probably show itself early in this game. Enthusiasm usually boils over well before the opening kickoff and I expect the hungrier team to make a statement right away.

Yesterday, I wrote about the enormous meaning a win would have for Columbia. And while the Brown seniors, especially super linebacker Zak DeOssie, will probably be motivated, I'm not sure the Bears will bring their heart and soul to the field. The Lions may have a great opportunity to sneak up on this team and grab a win.

Scouting Brown

I actually picked Brown to win the league this summer. I thought the impressive offensive line, and the DiGiacomo-to-Hill air connection would make up for the loss of Nick Hartigan and lead the Bears to a 6-1 season. But after Harvard smoked Brown in Providence in week 2, it became apparent that both the Bear offense and defense were not up to their 2005 or 2004 quality.

I thought quarterback Joe DiGiacomo would shine in his senior season and shake off his erratic tendancies. But Joe D is still throwing way to many interceptions, (13), and he hasn't been able to hook up with wide receiver Lonnie Hill anywhere near as much as I thought he would. The result is a Brown team that's scoring an uncharacteristically low 22.7 points a game.

That said, the Bears are still a very good passing team. Hill and fellow receiver Paul Raymond both have more than 600 yards receiving and a third receiver, Colin Cloherty has three touchdowns on just 17 total catches.

The defense is solid, but not spectacular. Zak DeOssie is a force in the middle, but he isn't breaking any records when it comes to tackles for a loss or sacks. Another big question is why Brown hasn't forced more turnovers. They've intercepted just seven passes and recovered only one fumble this season and their +/- turnover ratio is a weak 8:18.

But special teams has been a strength for the Bears. Their most dangerous weapon in this game will be senior kick and punt returner Brandon Markey. Columbia's kick coverage has been sketchy all year, and now they must face the most dangerous return man and team in the league on the last day of the season.

And Brown obviously has a lot of talent, and when they're focused they're dangerous. A highlight this season has to be their 30-27 overtime win over Penn at Franklin Field. Any team that can win at Penn has the ability to beat anyone in this league.

For Columbia to win it must do a lot of the same things it did last week against Cornell. An early lead would do wonders, as would an early long drive that establishes the pass to open up running lanes later in the game. And the Lions can't turn the ball over to a team that's struggled to get any takeaways this season already.

I like the way Columbia's passing game has improved, and Brown is giving up hefty 7.5 yards per pass attempt as it is. Add to that the Bears inability to grab a lot of interceptions, and Hormann could have a big day if he can continue to spread the ball around to a number of receivers. Last week, Dartmouth QB Mike Fritz was just as deadly with the pass as he was with his feet.

In many ways, this will be a crucial game for Craig Hormann. A good performance would show that he's really improved and solidify his claim for the starting spot for his senior season in '07. Whether we will see freshman QB M.A. Olawale tomorrow is a mystery, but I still think it wouldn't hurt to use him on a series or two to cross up the defense.

Brown could lay an egg tomorrow, but something tells me this will be a competitive game until the end. And with homefield advantage and reliable kicker, the Bears will probably pull this one out.

PREDICTION: Brown 21 Columbia 17

OTHER GAMES

Pennsylvania -6.5 at Cornell

The most erratic teams in the league face off in Ithaca. Penn has played like a champ at times, and a better kicking situation could have led them to a title this season. Cornell has been strong at home and weak on the road. I think Penn is really looking to prove something after their nice win over Harvard last week and Cornell's young squad may be about ready to pack it in for the year.

PREDICTION: Penn 20 Cornell 16

Dartmouth -14.5 at Princeton

This game reminds me a lot of 1995, when a strong Princeton team was shocked by the upstart Big Green at Palmer Stadium and the game ended in a tie. Princeton held on to win the Ivy title, but just barely. I think Dartmouth will give the Tigers a run for their money, but there are no more ties in college football.

PREDICTION: Princeton 17 Dartmouth 14

Yale +6.5 at Harvard

Both of these teams are very good, but the Crimson match up very well against an Eli squad that relies on the run to win. Harvard crushes the run game after game, and they will do so again Saturday. No title for the Bulldogs.

PREDICTION: Harvard 24 Yale 16