Columbia-Cornell Keys

Columbia is a seven point underdog at home against Cornell tomorrow.

Since week one, the Lions success has depended on the offense. The defense has done its job week in and week out, and every Lion loss has been a direct result of the offense not being able to move and score.

Last week, the Lions actually moved the ball well against a strong Harvard defense on an enemy field. The only trouble was Columbia turned the ball over four times, and each turnover occurred in the midst of a promising drive.

Will the offense finally put all the pieces together this week? Cornell's defensive front line doesn't promise to be too accommodating. The Big Red hasn't surrendered too many rushing yards this season. But the pass defense has been erratic and that may play into Columbia's hands. The Lions passing game has been much more effective than the ground attack, and Columbia QB Craig Hormann does seem to be throwing more accurately lately. But to take advantage of the Cornell secondary, Hormann will need to spread the wealth by hitting wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs and generally using the whole field on every possession. An occasional draw play or reverse is going to be needed to keep the Big Red from simply dropping back into nickel and dime packages all day.

And again, I think inserting freshman QB M.A. Olawale into a few series would also serve to confuse the defense and give the Lions more options on the ground.

Jamal Russell emerged as an important target for the Lions last week at Harvard. I think he's a key to this game tomorrow as the Big Red defensive backs will be busy covering Austin Knowlin, Nick DeGasperis and company and won't be able to focus on a tight end. Similarly, if the Lions can set up some screens to Jordan Davis and Ray Rangel, the results could be incredible. Rangel has been getting a few screen passes coming his way over the last few weeks and he seems like he's on the verge of breaking one big.

On defense, I expect Columbia to face a steady diet of Cornell running plays from a variety of players. Columbia has had trouble stopping scrambling QB's this year, (and every year), and that could mean a lot of chances for QB Nate Ford. Starting tailback Luke Siwula will also probably get about 30 carries and backup QB Stephen Liuzza will also get into the mix. Of course, Big Red coach Jim Knowles could really cross the Lions up with a shift to the passing game, but that would be a big gamble. It's one thing to try to fool an opponent; it's another to force a bunch of young players to do something they really haven't tried all year.

Columbia and Cornell need to be more concerned with endurance issues. Over the last few weeks, the Lions defense has never given up, but opposing runners have been able to gain more yardage late in games as the defense does tire out somewhat. For Cornell, the big problem is second half let down and fatigue. The Big Red needs to take an early lead and thus, Columbia can make a huge statement by getting out in front early or even going into the half tied. Stuffing some Cornell runs early in the game would be huge for the Lions.

This is a tough game to predict because Cornell is such a different team on the road. If this game were in Ithaca, I'd give the Big Red a ten-point edge. Another "X factor" is the Columbia offense that seems very overdue for a better game, but you can never count on something like that. I do think this game could be decided by some special efforts from the seniors who will be playing their final game at Baker Field. I expect inspired play from Adam Brekke, Todd Abrams, Darren Schmidt, and Justin Nunez on defense. On offense, look for senior Wide receiver Nick DeGasperis to move Heaven and Earth to get into the end zone.

Prediction: Columbia 20 Cornell 17

OTHER GAMES

Princeton +2.5 at Yale

I'm trying very hard not to let my emotions cloud my judgment here, but I'm still mad at Yale Coach Jack Siedlecki for calling a timeout with six seconds left against the Lions simply to score a tack-on touchdown. The Elis are a good team overall, but take away a couple of Bobby Abare interceptions for TD's the last two weeks and Yale might by 3-2 in the Ivies. Princeton's defense can shut down Mike McLeod and the Eli passing game isn't good enough to beat the Tigers. But Princeton still won't win if the offense doesn't start performing better, especially the running game. I'm going to say the offensive line will help the Tigers get it done tomorrow.

PREDICTION: Princeton 24 Yale 20


Harvard -6.5 at Pennsylvania

Penn is like a dangerous wounded animal right now after losing three straight overtime games. But Harvard has too much offense right now, and with Clifton Dawson so close to breaking the all-time Ivy League rushing record, there's no chance of a let down. On the other side of the ball, Penn QB Robert Irvin has not yet seen the kind of pass rush the Crimson have in store for him. This will be a thriller, but I like Harvard.

PREDICTION: Harvard 31 Penn 27


Brown -6.5 at Dartmouth

The Bears played pretty well against Yale last week and the Big Green is coming off a strong second half against Cornell. Brown seems like a prime upset victim after three straight weeks of playing very well, but Dartmouth just doesn't have the offensive weapons to take advantage.

PREDICTION: Brown 24 Dartmouth 17