Columbia-Iona: Keys to the Game

Columbia is a 22-point favorite against Iona Saturday

The Lions enter tomorrow's game needing to prove their offense isn't as weak as it looked last week against Princeton. As I mentioned earlier this week, the Gaels have a good enough defense to test Columbia, but not beat them. In fact, this entire game should be looked at as an opportunity for the Lions to work on their weaknesses.

There will be a reasonable amount of pressure on Lion QB Craig Hormann. He needs to direct the offense with authority and put a better touch on his throws. His receivers, especially tight end Jamal Russell, need to catch the ball better and help Hormann get into a good rhythm. Otherwise, Head Coach Norries Wilson will have to consider making some changes to the starting lineup before the Ivy season kicks in for real.

Jordan Davis needs to carry the ball 20+ times and make another good run at a 100-yard game. At the beginning of the season, I said Davis needed a 600+ yard season, and he's just off that pace after three games with 178 yards gained. Davis is no speedster or game-breaker, but he's incredibly sure-handed and reliable for a sophomore. A slightly better offensive line could be the difference between what he's doing now and putting up numbers similar to the 900+ yard season Ayo Oluwole had in 2003. Iona's run defense has been pretty stingy against weak competition this season, let's see if Davis and company can give the Gaels more than they can handle.

The defense needs to play the same way it has in the first three games. A letdown tomorrow would be a serious mental failing, and something no one should expect. The freshmen and sophomores who are leading this unit have a chance to rack up some big stats against a turnover and sack-prone Iona team that seems like the perfect victim for Columbia's 3-5-3 attack. Against smaller and slower opponents than the Lions, the Gaels have lost the ball 15 times and given up 19 sacks in just five games. Columbia should be expected to get at least four takeaways and five sacks. Anything less would be a moral victory for Iona.

On special teams, the Lions need to do a better job covering kicks. Each game so far this year has featured a long kick return by a Columbia opponent. So far, none of them has made a significant difference in a game, but it's a bad habit to get into. Meanwhile, Columbia's return game has been almost non-existent. Tad Crawford remains an extremely sure-handed punt returner, but he never seems to move the ball more than 2-3 yards ahead on each return. Chad Musgrove and Josh A. Williams have yet to break a nice kickoff return. Iona's coverage teams are a bit weak, so this game could provide some opportunities.

Iona will probably try to mix its offensive attack and send new starting running Dane Samuels and the more experienced Rudy Arcara to the sidelines, but I don't think Iona's offensive line will be able to attack Columbia at the edges very effectively. Running straight ahead won't work for the Gaels either, as it hasn't worked for any of the Lions' opponents so far this year.

Gael QB Dustin Croick started the season with seven interceptions before he had even one TD pass. He has since settled down with no picks in his last two games and three touchdown passes, but he can expect to be harassed and harassed often. His top receiver is 5"10 senior Brian Watts who has caught 17 passes this season for 281 yards and no touchdowns. Croick also dumps off a play-action pass to Samuels about twice a game, and that might present more of a challenge to Columbia's aggressive defense. Then again, maybe not, since it is the linebackers who cover those kinds of passes and the linebackers have been fantastic this season.

***UPDATE*** According to the Iona game notes, Croick will not play tomorrow. I assume he is injured. He is being replaced by senior Michael Biehl, who has thrown all of TWO PASSES all season. Unless Biehl is Peyton Manning in disguise, this should only help the CU defense as it faces an inexperienced signal-caller.

Iona actually has a decent kicker in senior Chris Lofrese, who like the Lions' Jon Rocholl, handles the punting and placekicking jobs. Lofrese is 4-4 on field goal attempts this season, but only one attempt has been for more than 30 yards.

I expect Iona to play about as well as can be expected for maybe two or three quarters. But after 35 minutes or so filled with hard rushing from Columbia's defense, things will start to fall apart for the Gaels, much as it did for Fordham in week one at Wien Stadium.

PREDICTION: Columbia 27 Iona 7

OTHER GAMES


Yale (-10) at Dartmouth

The Elis are dealing with some distractions this week as starting QB Matt Polhemus and star tailback Mike McCleod were both arrested after a brawl broke out at a campus-area restaurant. Both players will start tomorrow, but they may not be 100% mentally prepared for a better than expected Dartmouth defense that looked good last week at Penn. But Dartmouth just doesn't have enough offensive weapons to capitalize on what the Big Green "D" might give them. I expect a slow Eli start, but a recovery in the second half.

Prediction: Yale 24 Dartmouth 13


Cornell (+19) at Harvard

Harvard stumbled a little bit, especially on defense, at Lehigh last week, but Cornell's quarterbacking woes make the Big Red a poor candidate to hand the Crimson a true challenge. Harvard's star tailback Clifton Dawson may struggle at times to put up big numbers against Cornell, but I still expect a big game from the Bushnell Cup favorite.

Prediction: Harvard 28 Cornell 10


Brown (+1) at Holy Cross

The Bears are reeling after a convincing loss to Harvard followed by a loss to Rhode Island. Their defensive line seems suspect at stopping the run, and Brown's own running game is weaker than it's looked in almost a decade. This will be a dogfight, and I expect the Crusaders to pull it out.

Prediction: Holy Cross 27 Brown 24


Princeton (-6) at Colgate

The Tigers know they have a great defense and enough weapons on offense to win just about any game. Colgate is strong this season, but not as strong as we've seen them in the recent past. I like the Tigers to take this one in another close and low-scoring game.

Prediction: Princeton 17 Colgate 13


Penn (-3.5) at Bucknell

Bucknell is improving, but seeing Penn come in as less than a touchdown favorite is shocking. The Quakers offense is the culprit, as starting QB Robert Irvin was unimpressive against Dartmouth and Joe Sandberg clearly can't do everything on his own like Clifton Dawson does for Harvard. But Penn should still win this game.

Prediction: Penn 20 Bucknell 14