Where Do We Go From Here?

The Columbia Spectator had a great article yesterday explaining the Lions' risk-taking defense and how it works most of the time. This is a rare piece of "x's and o's" analysis for a student paper and it's worth the read.

Columbia's losses in 2005 came by an average of 29.6 points, so dropping a tough game at home to a strong Princeton team by just 13 points seems like a "moral' victory. The question is whether this first loss this season will open the floodgates to similar losses in the remaining seven games like it did last year. Will Columbia lose game after game because the offense is unable to capitalize on defensive success? Will the defense eventually tire out? Or will the offense wake up and put together a coherent enough attack to challenge everyone on the remaining schedule?

The Lions now know that their defense is strong enough to put them in a position to beat just about anybody. It's up to the coaches to come up with some schemes to give the offense a similar sense of confidence now.

SCOUTING IONA

If Columbia had beaten Princeton Saturday, this game would have been a dangerous one for the Lions as they would have been prime candidates for a let down and looking ahead to the Penn game the following week. But Columbia lost, and now the Iona game seems like a gift from the heavens as the Lions need to get back in the win column and prove a number of things on offense. The Gaels will not be a complete pushover, but they will be facing an angrier, more aggressive Lion squad that they would have met if Columbia was 3-0 instead of 2-1.

And here's another bit of luck for the Lions; Iona is a pretty good defensive team. I say that's lucky, because the Gaels should give Columbia's offense enough of a test to help them get better, as opposed to being a strong enough unit to shut them down for the second week in a row.

This is the first meeting between the two teams as Columbia seems intent on scheduling one home game a year against mid-major I-AA teams like Iona and Duquesne last year. Iona makes a little more sense as an opponent, as its campus is just 15 miles from Columbia's, but I still would prefer scheduling teams like Stony Brook and Hofstra for home and road games in order to boost Columbia's presence in recruiting-rich areas like Long Island. Monmouth should also be considered so the Lions can make some strides in New Jersey. And more of these games pitting one New York City area team against another will also lead to more local media coverage. There are a lot of great young athletes playing sports at the I-AA level in this area, and they deserve more attention.

Iona is a small school playing in a small stadium in New Rochelle, NY. They are coached by former Fordham offensive coordinator Fred Mariani. They were picked to finish high in the MAAC, but they started the season 0-4 before winning last week against Stonehill, 24-7. Despite Mariani's offensive roots, the Gaels have been a defensive-minded squad over the last few seasons, and this year is no exception. Iona is giving up just 16.6 points and just over 10 first downs a game. The offense is averaging just 14 points a game, but they've been a bit snake bitten this season as the Gaels have out-gained their opponents by more than 600 yards. The Iona rushing game isn't a joke, as they sport a lead rusher named Dane Samuels who has 346 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per carry average. Their QB Dustin Croik, is throwing for a respectable 192.6 yards per game, and a very impressive 7.5 yards a carry.

So why is Iona 1-4? One word: turnovers. The Gaels have been very clumsy with the football as they have lost eight fumbles and thrown seven interceptions. In fact, while Croik has avoided throwing an interception in his last two games, he had seven picks before he threw his first TD pass. Iona's turnover ratio is negative-nine as they have forced only six takeaways of their own. Iona also has some trouble with penalties as they are averaging seven flags a game for an average of 71.2 yards.

These weaknesses amount to a perfect storm for a Columbia team that specializes in takeaways and using opposing offensive mistakes to win games. The Gaels also give up a lot of sacks, with 19 allowed so far in the first five games. The aggressive Lion defense should definitely make its presence felt on the line.

But more important than looking at individual weaknesses and strengths is the fact that the MAAC is simply a much weaker conference than the Ivy League. The Lions were clearly the weakest team in the Ivies last season, but they beat eventual MAAC champion Duquesne 23-13, just before the Dukes went on to a perfect 5-0 record in the MAAC, including a 31-17 win at Iona. This isn't quite the same as Michigan scheduling a match up against Eastern Michigan, but it's close. Iona will not face a team as good as Columbia this year, and while that gives them a "nothing to lose" mentality, it will not be enough for them to win. The Gaels are a scrappy team that may recover in time for its conference schedule which begins after the Columbia game, but again, this is really an apples and oranges type of situation.

I'll have a detailed game prediction on Friday.

AROUND THE IVIES

Harvard 35 Lehigh 33

Clifton Dawson is human after all. The star Crimson running back was spectacular, instead of just stupefying, as he rushed for ONLY 94 yards on 31 carries. But his three touchdowns helped Harvard overcome a 24-7 deficit to win. A lot of the credit goes to the Crimson defense; they recorded a sensational seven sacks and regrouped to hold the Mountain Hawks to just nine points over the final two-and-a-half quarters in front of 10,680 screaming fans. Harvard's surprise starter was Chris Pizotti, who had been out since the early going of the Crimson's opening day win over Holy Cross.

Quick Impressions: Despite the close nature of this game, Harvard still looks like the top team in the league. The defense is streaky, but tough when it counts, and Dawson is capable of carrying this team even on his weaker days.


Penn 17 Dartmouth 10

The Quakers were given a surprising run for their money by a Big Green defense that held Penn to just 96 net rushing yards and 337 overall. Joe Sandberg had 22 carries for just 65 yards and Quaker QB Robert Irvin did little to prove he's anything more than adequate going 15-for-25 and tossing an interception. There were a lot of turnovers in this game, along with missed field goals, (Dartmouth's Andrew Kempler missed a 22-yarder and Penn's Derek Zoch missed a 26-yarder and a 39-yarder). Dartmouth's lone touchdown came after a botched Penn punt gave the Big Green a first down at the Quaker 18.

Quick Impressions: Penn looks vulnerable. Their offense is not scary and the defense is very strong, but not strong enough to carry them to victory week after week. Dartmouth's defense is improved, but the offense is not good enough to challenge more than one or two other teams in the Ivies.


Cornell 23 Albany 21

The Big Red finally got off the "schnide" after blowing a 20-7 lead and kicking a 4th quarter field goal to edge the Great Danes. Luke Siwula did most of the work, gaining 162 yards on 32 carries including a six-yard touchdown. But Cornell QB Nathan Ford had another unimpressive game, going 12-for-28 for just 112 yards. He also threw an interception that Albany returned for a 55-yard TD and put them up 21-20 at the time.

Quick Impressions: Cornell is not as bad as it looked in the first game against Bucknell, but it will not beat too many Ivy opponents unless Ford improves markedly in the next few weeks.


Yale 37 Lafayette 34

The Elis Mike McLoed had a bust-out game, rushing for 172 yards and three touchdowns on 30 carries. Yale QB Matt Polhemus had his best game so far, choosing his passes wisely going 10-for-16 for 196 yards and a touchdown. He finally got into a good rhythm with WR Ashley Wright, who caught four passes for a whopping 151 yards, including a 63-yard TD. But the defense was a different story, as the Bulldogs were out-gained 425-414 and Lafayette's offense, which had been quiet so far this year, looked very good on Saturday.

Quick Impressions: Yale's offense is starting to click nicely, but Siedlecki has never managed to put together a strong "D" in New Haven. The Elis may be able to sneak by Penn, but Princeton's defense and Harvard's offense will present real problems for them.


Rhode Island 28 Brown 21

The Bears fell behind 21-0 and couldn't complete an impressive second-half comeback. The most surprising stat was Brown's meager 76 yards rushing and Rhode Island's 234 yards on the ground. Bear QB Joe DiGiacomo had a mixed outing, going 17-for-34 for 244 yards and two touchdowns, but he also had two costly interceptions.

Quick Impressions: Brown's run defense is weaker than anyone expected it would be, and their rushing offense is a shell of its former self without Nick Hartigan. Unless the defensive line improves and DiGiacomo plays more consistently, the Bears may fall back into the Ivy pack this year.