Friday, October 01, 2010

Week 3 Picks



Well, I came back to Earth a bit in week two. Here’s a game-by-game look at how I did:

Yale -13 ½ at Cornell

Jake Said: “Cornell is hurting and is now forced to start a freshman QB in week 2. This seems ugly. Take Yale and give the 13 ½.”

RESULTS: It was closer than I thought, but Yale won 21-7. 1-0, 1-0 against the spread.


Sacred Heart -20 at Dartmouth

Jake Said: “The Big Green should win this one something like 34-7.”

RESULTS: Dartmouth barely held on to win 21-19. 2-0, 1-1 ATS.


Lafayette -3 ½ at Princeton

Jake Said: “Lafayette really needs this win.Take the Leopards and give the 3 ½.”

RESULTS: Princeton won in double OT. 2-1 1-2 ATS.


Harvard -5 ½ at Brown

Jake Said: “Harvard wins, but choose Brown and take the 5 ½ points.”

RESULTS: Brown blew the Crimson away. 2-2, 2-2 ATS.


Penn +17 at Villanova

Jake Said: “I think this Quaker team will defend their pride and keep it within 14 points.”

Results: Penn kept it close, but lost by 12. 3-2, 3-2 ATS.


So, my overall record so far is 9-4 and 9-4 against the spread.

Not bad, especially against the spread.

Now, on to Week 3!


Albany +7 ½ at Yale

I know they’re 2-0, but I’m not sold on this Eli team. I think Yale will pull it out, but Albany covers that spread.


Harvard -5 at Lafayette

Lafayette really needs a win, but I think the Leopards’ cupboard is bare. Take Harvard and lay the points.


Brown -4 ½ at Rhode Island

The Bears are hot, URI is consistently inconsistent. I sense a letdown for Estes’ boys. Take URI and the points, but Brown should squeak out a win.


Dartmouth +13 ½ at Penn

Penn hasn’t always looked too great in these week 3 games against the Big Green. My theory is that there’s always a big comedown after the Villanova game. And even if Quaker QB Keiffer Garton plays in the game, the offense may still sputter. Penn will win the game, but the Green covers.


Cornell +3 at Bucknell

I think the Big Red will win this game… Coach Austin’s learning curve will be on display.

21 Comments:

At Fri Oct 01, 10:14:00 AM GMT+7, Blogger DOC said...

Agree with all your picks except Dartmouth at Penn. The
Quakers were in a 15-10 game AT Villanova and were driving late in the 4th quarter last week before a pick-6 killed their chances. Methinks they have too much defense for Dartmouth.

 
At Fri Oct 01, 07:37:00 PM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There's a good highlight video on the Princeton Football website of their game against Lafayette. It is a nicely done piece, narrated by this guy with a deep voice, like those NFL films productions. It is well done, and would be nice if Columbia could beef up their highlight video to look more like this. It might create more fan interest. Just a thought

 
At Fri Oct 01, 07:52:00 PM GMT+7, Blogger HBShannon said...

Jake

One thing I have learned, no mistake happens twice on an Estes coached team. In 2008, high off of a win against Harvard, Brown travelled to URI and had a let down.

I cannot see how Coach Estes will let them forget and not have these guys fully charged for this game.

I see this group as very cohesive and team oriented. Losing big name players in all facets has forced them to pull together and forge ahead and despite the pundits respect no one chose Brown to be the Ivy Champs this year. Now that door has been opened some.

Look for the Bears to seize the opportunity in a season they were told would be a let down season of re-tooling if not re-building.

 
At Fri Oct 01, 09:24:00 PM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Columbia Football wants this game bad. Princeton has disrespected us for years and even when we kicked their butts last year by a 38-0 score the Daily Princetonian ran a headline that described us as "perennial pushovers." If Columbia needed any additional motivation against Princeton on Saturday, that headline should do it.

 
At Fri Oct 01, 09:49:00 PM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Our offense needs to get off to a faster start.

 
At Fri Oct 01, 10:05:00 PM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Will Otis man up on Peacock?

 
At Fri Oct 01, 10:43:00 PM GMT+7, Blogger cathar said...

Like someone else posted, the prevsiling attitude at Princeton always seems to be that we are a guaranteed win for them. If last season's 38-0 "upset" was but a mild blow to their confidence, then I much look forward to a second, major blow to it. Lions, 27-13, at the very least.

 
At Fri Oct 01, 11:14:00 PM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wilson,in an interview: it's unlikely Fraser will play vs. the Tigers, although he practiced this week. The leg is not 100%, he said.

 
At Sat Oct 02, 12:19:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who's favored to win the Princeton game?

 
At Sat Oct 02, 12:36:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Re Frazier, anyone have any idea whether this is still the same injury suffered against Laf last year or a different one?
-Dr.V

 
At Sat Oct 02, 12:43:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

On what factual basis are readers posting comments that "Princeton has disrespected us for years" and "the prevailing attitude has been Columbia is a guaranteed win"?

Have you taken a survey of past Princeton football players? Was there a sufficient sample size in your survey to extrapolate to a population of hundreds of players and coaches?

Or have you spoken to one guy that you know who went to Princeton and said, "I think the Tigers will probably win on Saturday"?

The reality is that these posters are most likely merely projecting THEIR OWN feelings to make such sweeping generalizations about Princeton or any other opponents being confident against Columbia.

There is a unique kind of defensiveness -- a mixture of perpetual optimism, anxiety, aggressiveness and inferiority complex -- that marks the comments of many readers on this blog. Maybe that defensiveness is present among most long-time Columbia football fans in general. A lot of losing over the decades can do that to a man. I don't know. What I do know is that these posters have absolutely no basis on which to be drawing generalizations about what other football programs or their fans think about Columbia. If anything, they are PROVOKING other generalizations about Columbia FANS by voicing defensive and insecure comments on blogs such as Jake's.

 
At Sat Oct 02, 01:24:00 AM GMT+7, Blogger cathar said...

I don't see any, uh, "defensiveness" from Columbia fans. Really, that judgment is harsh and unwarranted.

Instead, I have sat on the Princeton side during games, resd through the Daily Princetonian (a journal of overcofidence in general, one might suggest), listened to the Princeton band's halftime shows (worse than Columbia's, even more prone to in-group "humor") and talked to an awful lot of Princeton fans through the decades. Their prevailing mindset really is that Columbia football merely exists to bolster their win column. (Hence, too, their belief that Yale and Harvard are their traditional rivals, never Columbia.)

And their fans were in absolute shock over last year's 38-0 drubbing.

I hope, trust and pray that the shock level down there in Tigerland will only continue after Saturday's result is final.

I also suspect that post denigrating Lions fans as defensive and insecure was not in fact written by one. He/she has also clearly never read the meanderings of our pal Foehi.

 
At Sat Oct 02, 01:44:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks cathar, for your eloquent retort.

 
At Sat Oct 02, 03:59:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Statistically, an Ivy League team has been more likely to win against Columbia than any other conference opponent.

Princeton, for whatever reason, has been historically more likely to defeat Columbia than any other Lion opponent. The most likely explanation is simple random statistical noise because, over the past half-century, Princeton has not been a dominant League football power.

In light of those two actuarial facts, do you believe that the Princeton alumni with whom you have spoken hold PARTICULAR arrogance toward Columbia? Is the Daily Princetonian MORE over-confident than the record book would warrant? Is the Princeton band MORE condescending toward Columbia than it is toward other opponents? Not that I can tell.

It is dangerous to draw too many strong conclusions about the alumni of any university from the ramblings of an 18-year-old newspaper columnist trying to fill up that last column-inch of blank space. Ditto for drunk band members who can barely form a recognizable shape on the field after drinking the entire first half.

And Princeton's main rivals ARE Harvard and Yale. That's not an insult to Columbia or anybody else -- that's an empirical fact verifiable from application and cross-admit data, not to mention dubious magazine-selling analyses performed by Forbes and US News & World Report. Every year, Princeton battles Harvard for the top spot, not Columbia. That's not an insult to Columbia.

I don't doubt that Princeton fans were shocked by the 38-0 victory last year, but equally shocked were offshore betting websites and most college football fans in general.

I just don't see where all this venom toward Princeton comes from. Does it come from within?

 
At Sat Oct 02, 04:57:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sure the venom comes from within. Where else would it come from? Anyway, enough with the psychological nonsense. Please go to another blog if you have trouble understanding why Columbias loyal Football Fans would like their team to defeat Princeton tomorrow. Good Luck to our beloved Lions. Let's make it two in a row over Princeton. Go Lions!!!!!

 
At Sat Oct 02, 05:12:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pal- the venom runs deep. All one must do is take a look at the 80's to figure that out. Take your ascot off, drink a beer and then let's talk football.

 
At Sat Oct 02, 05:33:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe it's just me but I find our statistically oriented Princeton poster 1) sounding a bit defensive himself and 2) approaching down right annoying.

And I have facts to support this argument in his very posts. Of course he will tell me that my sample size of his posts (n=2) is not statistically meaningful and that one needs > 30 data points to do a regression analysis with a useful r-squared.

But I would still be right.

Chen '82

 
At Sat Oct 02, 05:51:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

" ...that's an empirical fact verifiable from application and cross-admit data, not to mention dubious magazine-selling analyses performed by Forbes and US News & World Report."

Empirical emphasis upon "dubious" ...

"... Does it come from within?"

No.

Leonlion

 
At Sat Oct 02, 06:02:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow... would anyone care to actually talk about the upcoming GAME?

 
At Sat Oct 02, 06:40:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who's favored to win the game?

 
At Sat Oct 02, 07:30:00 AM GMT+7, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As a former player, Princeton's fans and players are more arrogant than any other team we faced, despite the fact that they generally weren't the toughest opponent. This is not my opinion, but an observable fact with plenty of evidence to support it. We were always extra fired up for Princeton no matter what the record for this very reason, and it's for this reason I hope the Lions whip their sorry butts again this year.

And by the way, I think the Lions will do just that. So put that in your pipe and smoke it.

 

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