The Stage is Set... Almost

5 Days Until Kickoff!

Columbia lost to Harvard 37-17 in a pre-season scrimmage at Wien Stadium on Friday. I could write about 2,000 words on the little, but much-appreciated, info we got on the game from the CU Web site, but why? Scrimmages simply don't count and they amount to nothing more than one big practice. Practice is huge that's true, but you have to put things in perspective. The most important thing is that it appears no one was injured.

(On the other hand, Columbia's first opponent Fordham played a real game this weekend and that's the focus of this post).

You might think that having to face a team that's playing its third regular season game in your opener would give the opponent the advantage. After all, the team with a couple games under its belt should be more prepared, right? Well, in the short history of Columbia-Fordham games since 2000, the Lions have consistently played much better in the opener than at almost any time during the rest of the year. And Fordham, a team that has seen the highest highs and lowest lows over the past six years, has played consistently worse against Columbia than most of its other opponents.

I can only chalk this up to the fact that it is COLUMBIA that has the advantage over a team that it can vigorously scout from game films; while Fordham has to guess what kind of team it will be facing year after year.

Anything can happen this year, but the Lions certainly have learned a lot about Fordham over the last two weeks. After a 23-9 loss to Monmouth and a 9-7 win over Albany, here's what we know:

1) The Offense is all about Prydatko

James Prydatko is the perfect kind of back for Ivy/Patriot League competition. He's big enough to bull through some of the smaller defenders you see in these leagues, but not too big to be a total slow poke. He's not exactly fast, but neither are 99% of the defenders he faces. He's a bit of a poor man's Nick Hartigan, whose quasi-fullback frame made him a very tough guy to beat and propelled Brown to the Ivy title last season. Prydatko hurt Columbia last season, but not enough to beat them. In fact, while he did get a 70+ yard run for a TD in the '05 contest, the Lion defenders held him on several 3rd and short and 4th and short chances.

This Lion squad may have a tougher time doing that this year. Some of the better run stoppers from last season are gone and the Lion's 3-3-5 defense may confuse both Fordham AND Columbia in this opening game. Lion defenders gave up more and more yards against the run last year as the season wore on. So, expect Fordham coach Tom Masella to test the Columbia run defense all day.

Of course, he'll have to do that because not only is the Lion run defense questionable, but so are the abilities of Ram starting QB Derric Daniels. Unlike week one, when Daniels' weak play really contributed to Fordham's loss at home, Daniels didn't exactly do much to help beat Albany this time out. He was 11-19 for 97 yards, no TD's and no INT's. Not getting picked off was a big help, but he did fumble the ball twice, (one was recovered by the Great Danes), and his yards per completion average of 5.1 was pretty anemic. And when you consider Fordham absolutely dominated the time of possession, holding the ball for 36:35 compared to Albany's 23:25, the fact that Daniels only threw the ball 19 times in a tight game with good weather shows you how much faith the Ram coaches have in this guy. In the 2005 CU-Fordham game, Daniels absolutely helped Columbia win as he threw a couple of key interceptions and took a few sacks he should have been able to avoid. There is NO EVIDENCE Daniels has improved at all from last season, and just as Fordham must test the Lion run defense, Columbia must test Daniels' abilities and force him to make the plays he hasn't seemed capable of making since his sophomore year of 2004.

So this is not complicated; the key to stopping Fordham is Prydatko. There's no doubt Columbia knows this, but a lot of doubt about whether it can get it done. And to get it done there are three guys who need to step up, not only this week, but all season. The first is tri-captain Adam Brekke. Brekke's been a hard-working player who's already made an impact in a number of games since he was thrust into the starting lineup as a freshman. But now he's going to have to become dominant, at least in games where Columbia isn't horrifically overmatched. Brekke needs to lead his fellow linebackers into the holes to stop Prydatko this Saturday, or the Fordham runner will be into the secondary before you know it.

Another key player will be Todd Abrams, who will definitely be tested as he switches from linebacker to nose tackle. Abrams is another guy with a lot of heart, but his size is a concern, and expect Prydatko to run up the gut and test that Lion middle early and often.

And finally, a lot of this game, this season, and the next three years of Columbia football may rest on the shoulders of sophomore Phillip Mitchell. Mitchell will probably start at defensive end, and Coach Wilson seems to think the world of this kid, even hinting that he could be an NFL prospect. Both of the two most recent postings on the CU football Web site have gone out of their way to mention Mitchell and how he is both talented and hard-working. Hopefully, this is all more than just bluster. Columbia was so embarrassed by opposing running backs last season that it sometimes seemed like an 80-year-old guy pulling a rickshaw full of bricks could have put up a 100-yard game against them. It would certainly be a rarity for an underclassman to make an impact on the line. We didn't hear Mitchell's name last year in any varsity games or in the limited news about the JV squad, so this would be the equivalent of coming out of nowhere. But for a coach who is insisting that no starting jobs are set, it seems encouraging that Wilson is so insistent on singling out Mitchell in his public comments. With so many underclassmen, particularly sophomores, being asked to take a leadership role on this squad, Mitchell is Columbia's 2006 team personified.

2) The Fordham Defense is Ram Tough

Fordham has looked really strong against the run in both of its games, so it's likely they will give no help to the Lions' questionable ground game. Meanwhile, the shaky Ram pass defense was much improved against Albany, giving up just 138 passing yards in 26 attempts, (a 5.3 yards per attempt average), and snaring three interceptions. Last year's questionable Fordham secondary was a key to the Columbia win as both Craig Hormann and Joe Winters passed to a number of different receivers for key completions. Things may not be so easy through the air this time.

The good news is Fordham didn't get any sacks and while the Rams stopped the run, Albany didn't exactly run the ball very much anyway. This is a good defense, but it's not as strong as what the Lions are going to see when they play Penn or Harvard. A nice mix of the run and pass should work, especially if Columbia can find a way to get at least three yards a carry. In any event, expect this to be a low scoring game.

3) Disciplined They're Not

Fordham supporters will characterize the Albany win as Prydatko's personal triumph and a great team defensive effort. But that's not the whole story. First of all, this was a very sloppy game. There were a lot of penalties on both sides and Fordham had horrible problems with its long snapping, (something that really plagued Columbia for years before seemingly fixing the problem in 2004). Fordham has fumbled the ball five times in two games, losing it three times. You don't usually expect a team playing its first game to be crisper than the one playing its third, but Columbia has a chance to do just that unless the Rams get their act together.

Fordham's kicking was another problem. Ram place-kicker Micah Clukey missed his one PAT attempt and two of his three field goal opportunities. There was a light rain but virtually no wind to speak of, so the weather was really not a factor. Clukey has been pretty reliable in his previous three seasons, so this may have been a result of poor snaps or maybe he's losing focus. Punter Ben Dato had a much better night, averaging a nice 32.3 net yards a boot. Dato also delivered some strong kick offs, so the conditions were fine enough for him to be effective.

4) This Won't be Easy

I don't think anyone in their right mind is expecting Columbia to have an "easy" time with any opponent this year, except for maybe Iona. But after Fordham's opening loss to Monmouth, it was looking like maybe the Lions could be facing the Rams at just the right time. If Fordham improves as much from last week's game to next week's game as much as they did from the first week loss to the win over Albany, Columbia is in trouble. But there tends to be a law of diminishing returns when it comes to improvement over the course of a season and Fordham has already come a long way, especially on defense.

BOTTOM LINE: This is still a game Columbia can and must win if it hopes to have a successful season. I'll have more of a detailed game prediction later in the week.

ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN I-AA FOOTBALL

Beginning with the Future Lion Opponent Watch:

Georgetown rebounded from its opening loss to Holy Cross at home with a 7-0 win over Stony Brook, also at home. The weather was fine for the game, so this was not a storm-reduced score by any means. It just looks like the Hoyas and Seawolves played a game dominated by "three and outs" and weak running attacks. From its first two contests Georgetown seems pretty solid defensively especially against the run, which is troublesome for the Lions. On the other hand, the Hoya offense is nothing to cower in fear over, and that's a comfort.

Iona played a similarly defensive-minded game in losing to Wagner on Staten Island 7-3. Again, the weather was not a factor and there was just one turnover in the entire game. Iona's defense seems to be pretty strong, but the offense has done virtually nothing scoring just 10 total points in two games now.

PATRIOT LEAGUE ROUNDUP

Lafayette beat Bucknell 31-0, and it looks like the Bison are still not recovered from last year's awful season. You still have to expect the Leopards to fall at home against Penn this Saturday, but you never know. Lafayette QB Brad Mauer is a pretty tough weapon as a passer and a runner and the game is in Easton, PA. The Leopards face a steady Ivy League diet this month with games at Princeton and at home against Yale following the battle versus the Quakers.

Northeastern got a bit of a scare against Holy Cross before beating the Crusaders 24-14. NU does not play any Ivy opponents this year, but Holy Cross will take on Harvard this Saturday in Cambridge and will host Brown on 9/30.

And Lehigh looked very good in beating Villanova at Villanova, 31-28. Lehigh was coming off a tough loss to Albany in week one and seemed like an entirely different team this time around. Lehigh plays three Ivies this year, hosting Princeton and Harvard and facing Yale on the road.

GAME OF THE WEEK... DUH!

Of course the Eastern I-AA game of the week was New Hampshire's stunning win over Northwestern in Evanston, IL. UNH really outplayed NU in a 34-17 victory. Congratulations are in order for Coach Sean McDonnell and the rest of the Wildcat squad for the big upset. It's possible that UNH is looking to make the jump to I-A much like UConn did successfully about 10 years ago. If so, this win has added fuel to that fire.

Speaking of fuel to the fire, UNH takes on Dartmouth in Hanover, NH on 9/23. This should be an ugly game, but as Bruce Wood over at the Big Green Alert points out, it actually makes things more fun for Dartmouth as anything they accomplish against a power like UNH will be encouraging. Of course, a devil's advocate could bring up Cornell's infamous 1991 game at Stanford, where the Big Red were stuffed 51-6 and suffered so many injuries that a promising Ivy League season was washed away. Hopefully, the Big Green will at least keep their players healthy.